Israel Goes to the Polls Part 3

Israel’s national election on October 27 is shaping up as a closely contested battle over the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The latest opinion polls show considerable uncertainty, with neither major political camp consistently securing the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Netanyahu’s Likud party is competing closely with Yashar, the new party led by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot. According to the average of five polling organisations published by the Middle East Forum, Likud is projected to win approximately 23 seats and Yashar 22.

The broader political picture is more complicated. The Israel Votes polling average, based on eight polls available up to October 9, puts Netanyahu’s governing bloc at approximately 55 seats. The anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties are projected to win about 48, while Arab-led parties account for approximately 13 seats. These figures leave coalition negotiations central to determining who will govern.

The election is being fought against the background of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, the subsequent wars, questions about national security and government accountability, and disagreements over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews. The economy, relations with the United States and the future of the Palestinians are also important issues.

What happens next? The seat projections suggest that coalition-building could be as important as the election result itself. Netanyahu may seek to retain power through negotiations with smaller parties, while his opponents face the challenge of assembling a viable alternative government.

The polling figures are snapshots, not guaranteed results. Turnout, parties failing to cross Israel’s electoral threshold and last-minute shifts in voter support could all change the distribution of seats.

The bottom line: The latest polling points to a highly competitive election in which the composition of the next governing coalition remains uncertain. The decisive question is whether either camp can assemble the 61-seat majority required to govern, or whether Israel faces prolonged negotiations and political deadlock.