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A Jewish-American historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of every US presidential election since 1984 – ten out of ten! He weighed in again predicting a Joe Biden victory for the 2020 election.

Prof Alan Lichtman’s success is based on his Keys to the White House model, first created in 1981 alongside Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok and later published in a book in 1996. The model is based on earthquake studies and has a set of thirteen "keys" that are used as predictors for determining the outcome of the US presidential elections.

Notably, it is based entirely on the performance of the incumbent and their party, which will determine if their party will secure the Oval Office for another term or if it will be lost to the opposition. These keys cover a wide variety of topics, including scandal, a party's control of the House of Representatives, the state of the economy, social unrest, foreign/military successes and failures, charisma and so on.

"It's governing, not campaigning, that counts."


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